Wednesday, April 16, 2014

Nowhere To Go But Up?

Of the seven Canadian NHL teams, only one (Montreal) has made the playoffs. To spell that out, there are 30 teams, 16 make the playoffs, and 7 teams are Canadian. If I remember my combinatorics correctly, that ads up to a thirteen per cent chance of only one Canadian team making the playoffs. Indeed, the last time it happened, there were just three Canadian teams total in the league.

So now hands are wringing and questions being asked. And the in-thing for getting your Canadian hockey team back on track is to hire a former player. Specifically it should be a Character Guy, with experience in management not a necessity.

I've talked in the past about the question of why Canadian teams don't win the Stanley Cup.  That drought is at twenty years (and the likelihood of the American teams having such a winning streak is about 1%.)  With it seeming less likely than ever to end, I'm wondering: What's gone wrong?  Let's look at all the teams (except Winnipeg, you've got a good excuse.)

Vancouver

The Canucks have been Canada's best team for most of the cup drought. And that's through three generations of teams. The first was dominated by Bure and Linden, the second by Naslund and He-Who-Must-Not-Be-Named, and now featuring the Sedin twins. It's time for a new generation, but the cupboard seems to be bare, in spite of having traded two star goalies in the last couple of years. So although the future doesn't look good, you can't really blame them for Canada's futility.

Edmonton

For the first half of the cup drought, they were barely staying in business.  So they didn't have much of a chance to build a winner.  Now the economic situation is much better, but the team seems to be worse.  The Oilers have been run by Character Guys from their Glory Years for a while now. That hasn't helped - don't tell Vancouver fans. Also not helping: years of high draft picks. It seems like they're building the perfect 1980's team: full of speed and skill and offence and other now-irrelevant things.

Calgary

For the last ten years, they've featured: a great goalie, strong defence, and a high-scoring power forward. That's not enough to win a cup, but it is a great start. Unfortunately, they were never able to add much to it. In fact, when they did make a splashy trade or free-agent signing, it was usually another winger or defender. It seemed like the stereotypical Canadian team: emphasizing physicality and goal scoring while ignoring everything else.

Toronto

Toronto have had some good teams during the drought, but never been able to make a great team. It seems that no matter what the team's situation is, it's always coached and managed as though it's on the verge of winning the cup. That's led to trading of draft picks and overpaying free agents, and the team seems to live hand-to-mouth, bringing in just enough talent to avoid disastrous seasons, but not developing a really strong team.

Montreal

The Canadiens won Canada's last Stanley cup in 1993. They did that with a team consisting of a great goalie and a solid-but-not-spectacular team. And they seem to have been trying to recreate that formula ever since. While some teams are considered "black holes of goaltending" (Ottawa or Philadelphia) Montreal is the opposite, always able to find another great goalie.  They've been successful in terms of making the playoffs, but haven't made a real cup contender.

Ottawa

The Senators had a disappointing season, and now pundits are talking like it's a foregone conclusion that they'll trade star forward Jason Spezza. That tells you plenty about the short-term thinking behind Canadian hockey.  It's too bad, because the Sens have had some of the most talented teams in Canada for the past decade.  So like Vancouver, kudos to them for giving it a good shot.

So it's hard to get excited in the near future for Canadian teams. There could be more making the playoffs next year, but none of them look like they're going to be contenders any time soon. It looks like we're going to be stick with the usual squeak-into-the-playoffs-then-hope-for-the-best attitude we've had to put up with for a whole now.

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