My Pessimism Knows No Bounds

We found out this week that the cholera epidemic in Haiti following the earthquake started with bacteria carried by emergency personnel from Nepal.  That's terrible news, and we'll want answers about how this wasn't foreseen and can be prevented in the future.  And there's a lawsuit against the U.N. in Haiti for a billion dollars.

It would be nice if financial reparations and more careful future behaviour are the only things coming out of this incident.  But if there really is a great deal of money changing hands over this, it's sure to reduce future efforts.  Usually when there's a natural disaster somewhere in the world, it takes a long time for the rest of the world to respond.  You can bet responses will be even slower after all the cover-your-ass checks are done.  And if a big payout comes directly from Nepal, then it and other developing countries are going to be very reluctant to contribute to future humanitarian missions.

I'd certainly like to see justice done, I'm just skeptical that any changes are going to save more lives (in preventing disease) than they cost (in reduced response to disasters.)

Meanwhile in Italy, several geophysicists have been sent to prison for being too reassuring about the possibility of an earthquake.  It isn't quite as bad as the way it's being described: that they've been sent to prison for failing to predict the quake, even though that's impossible.  However, the reality is almost as frustrating: after one person used a widely discredited method to predict that there was a major quake coming, the actual scientists tried to reassure people, and were thus considered to have encouraged complacency.

This made me think back to the persecution of Galileo.  People have seen that as evidence of the Catholic Church being against science.  But now I realise it wasn't the church; it's the Italian justice system that hates science.  By the way, I've read reassurances that the way Italian justice works, they probably won't serve any time.  But still, you have to wonder what facts scientists will hold back from now on.