Friday, December 28, 2012

Fiscal Bluffs

I haven't really kept up on the Fiscal Cliff issue.  So I guess I'm not really that different from most journalists.  There seems to be a lot of dumbing down and summing up going on.  And by that, I mean jumping to the worst possible outcome.  Many aren't even bothering to say it could dip the U.S. into recession, and just saying that the cliff will cause a new recession.  Most frustratingly, by saying it that way, it means they'll likely be right.

Here's what I think is happening here:  The (Republicans/Democrats) have spent years saying that it's very important to have (low taxes/government programs).  God forbid those other guys will get in power and (raise taxes through the roof/slash spending to the bone) - that would cripple the economy.  Of course, it's true that in order to give the public (low taxes/government programs) it'll require (less spending/high taxes).  But don't worry, that's not a problem; in fact, it may even be a good thing, since (rich people have money to burn/poor people have become dependent).

If either party had total control, they'd do something that a lot of people wouldn't like, but they'd be assuring us that it's not that bad.  But now we have a situation where the terrible thing that each party dreads is going to happen, but without the reassurance of the other.  For instance, Republicans have long said that the welfare state should be reduced.  Well now it is being reduced, but rather than tell us what a good thing that is, they're distracted by the prospect of higher taxes.  Likewise, many Democrats have suggested letting the Bush tax cuts expire.  Well, they're about to, but they can't celebrate, because many unemployed people are about to lose their benefits.  If only both parties would see the glass as half full.

Whatever your political affiliation, you have to realize that some big changes to the American budget are needed, at least assuming your mathematical affiliation is with reality.  Great news!  Those changes are about to happen.  Once the public's expectations have been readjusted, we can refine things to popular tastes later.  But for now, forcing a big shift in perspective could do us a lot of good.

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